Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

Yes, I know, it's the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That's why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!

Up first is the April forecast, which involved rankings for the five GSB cities. Below are the rankings as of the end of April, with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 15th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities are within the given ranges.
On Target: Three or four are in the given ranges.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the given ranges.

All five were in range, with 4 of them being just making it. That's a Bull's Eye!

Finally, it's the Season outlook, which was made in the beginning of January. It involved the rankings of the five cities in this contest. Below are the cities' placements with my predicted rank in parenthesis.

1. Syracuse (1)
2. Rochester (2)
3. Binghamton (3)
4. Buffalo (4)
5. Albany (5)

Bull's Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.

All five were in the position I had predicted, so that is another Bull's Eye!

Unfortunately, these two Bull's Eye forecasts were not enough to reach my 1.00 goal. The April and Season forecasts over on GSG were Complete Miss outlooks, so my average for the season is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull's Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull's Eyes and two were Complete Misses.

So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.

Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I'd like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I'll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it'll be here next season, if not, then it won't. I don't want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.

Enjoy the off season everyone!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Update

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I'll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It's about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average. Below are the snowfall totals for the five cities, with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Albany: 8.8 (10.9)
Binghamton: 25.9 (14.2)
Buffalo: 13.3 (12.4)
Rochester: 15.1 (16.6)
Syracuse: 18.5 (18.8)

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

I know there were some comments at the beginning of the month that basically said this was a no-brainer. Well, this season, there is no such thing as a no-brainer this season as only 2 of the 5 were above average for March.

With both GSB and GSG giving me Complete Miss outlooks for March, my average has now dropped to 0.83, below the goal of 1.00. Of the four remaining results, it looks like I'll be needing at least 2 Bull's Eye predictions to get to the goal.

With that in mind, here's a look at April so far. I had ranges for where I believed each of the 5 GSB cities would be for the end of April, basically the end of the snow season. Below are their current rankings (as of the 9th), with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 16th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Right now, all five are in the ranges I set. The best way for me to get a Bull's Eye with this forecast is for there to be no more snow for the next few weeks. I'm sure most people would be fine with that!

Hey, have a great week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool's Day joke!), it's time to see just how much of a joke this season's Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it's a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures, and their relation to average. Below are the number of days the GSB cities had high temperatures below average from the 29th to the 30th.

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 2
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 1

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

All five were below average on the 29th, but only Buffalo and Rochester were below average on the 30th. So, the final PBR Forecast of the season was On Target.

As a result, I do not meet the 1.00 average goal set at the beginning of the season. It was these forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull's Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. Golden Snow Globe forecasts were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull's Eye category. For the grand total, it's 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I'll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 29-30

It's the last Point Blank Range Forecast of the season, and the way the forecasts have been, the end couldn't have come soon enough. Details on the last forecast to come, but first, as always, is the look back at the last outlook.

The previous prediction involved snowfall on the 23rd and 24th. Below are the totals for those 2 days.

Albany: 0.6
Binghamton: 5.2
Buffalo: 7.0
Rochester: 6.8
Syracuse: 3.9

Bull's Eye: Binghamton has more snow than any other GSB city.
On Target: Binghamton has more snow than 3 of the other GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Oh look! Another Complete Miss! That's 5 for the season. Combined with the On Target over at Golden Snow Globe, I'm below the 1.00 goal set before the season. The only way I can reach it now is with 2 Bull's Eye predictions. With 1 forecast left, it's all or nothing: both GSB and GSG forecasts must be Bull's Eyes or it is an unsuccessful season for me, at least as far as the PBR Forecasts are concerned.

Now on to this forecast, which will focus on temperatures. Hey, I need to give myself some chance at a Bull's Eye. Temperatures were the only Bull's Eye here, so that's what I'm going with when I need it most.

Cooler temperatures are in store for the GSB cities for most of the week. Temperatures should be below average for all GSB cities in at least one of the days.

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

Remember to check out Golden Snow Globe for the forecast over there as well. Enjoy the week everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 23-24

Happy Spring everyone! Ah, but just because the calendar says it's a new season, doesn't mean the weather has to go with it. One more push of snow is coming to the GSB cities. My forecast on that is to come, but first a look back at the last prediction.

The previous PBR forecast involved temperatures for the GSB cities. Below is the low temperatures for the two days, 11th first with 13th in parenthesis.

Albany: 53 (43)
Binghamton: 44 (38)
Buffalo: 34 (34)
Rochester: 49 (38)
Syracuse: 43 (40)

Bull's Eye: Friday's high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday's for all five GSB cities.
On Target: Friday's high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday's for 3 of the five GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Friday's high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday's less than 3 of the five GSB cities.

Only two cities had double digit differences, so this is a Complete Miss, the 4th of the season.

Despite this, my average went up, thanks to a Bull's Eye on Golden Snow Globe. Is it weird that I can forecast better for different parts of the U.S. than I can for my home state? Maybe it's just the nature of our weather, or the forecasts themselves. I'm still below the 1.00 goal though, and with 2 forecasts left, there is not much room for another Complete Miss.

Now on to this forecast which involves snowfall. It looks like Binghamton will be the hardest hit among the GSB cities. In previous forecasts, I would take one city over the combined totals of the other four. Those would backfire badly. I've finally learned my lesson, going a little more cautious this time.

Bull's Eye: Binghamton has more snow than any other GSB city.
On Target: Binghamton has more snow than 3 of the other GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site to see the forecast there as well.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: April 2011

While it's still March, I wanted to get the April forecast in now. Before I do that though, I'll give a quick update on the March forecast.

If you recall, the outlook for the month involved snowfall compared to average. Below are the snowfall totals for the month so far, with monthly average in parenthesis.

Albany: 6.6 (10.9)
Binghamton: 20.2 (14.2)
Buffalo: 4.1 (12.4)
Rochester: 8.0 (16.6)
Syracuse: 14.1 (18.8)

Right now, only Binghamton is over their monthly average. I need at least 2 more to do the same to get the On Target spot, with all four meaning a Bull's Eye prediction.

Now on to April's outlook. I believe that the snow machine is coming to an end. There will be snow this week (more on that tomorrow!), but I believe that will be the final push. With that in mind, I'm giving a range for how this season will rank for each city at the end of April.

Albany: 5-9
Binghamton: 3-6
Buffalo: 13-19
Rochester: 8-12
Syracuse: 3-4

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities are within the given ranges.
On Target: Three or four are in the given ranges.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the given ranges.

Happy Spring everyone! Be sure to check out the SITD forecast over on Golden Snow Globe as well.

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Mar. 11-13, 2011

Mild temperatures have been the story for the later part of the week, but they are not going to stay this way for long. More details on that to come, but first is the look back at the last forecast.

The previous outlook involved snowfall for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Here are their snow totals from the 25th through the 27th of February.

Buffalo: 11.1
Rochester: 10.0
Syracuse: 9.3

Bull's Eye: All three get at least 8 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend.
On Target: All three get at least 8 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: At least one of the three gets under 8 inches of snow.

Neither could quite get to the foot mark over the three days, so it is an On Target forecast.

With this and the GSG forecast being On Target, my average remains below 1.00 for the season, now at 0.93. Just 3 forecasts remain, enough to either finish out strong or end with a whimper.

Now on to this forecast, which as hinted at before, focuses on temperatures. In particular, it compares Friday highs with Sunday's low for all GSB cities. I am expecting double digit differences for at least a majority of the region.

Bull's Eye: Friday's high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday's for all five GSB cities.
On Target: Friday's high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday's for 3 of the five GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Friday's high will be at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday's less than 3 of the five GSB cities.

Be sure to check out the forecast on Golden Snow Globe as well!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: March 2011

I'd like to say that the season is wrapping up, but seeing forecasts of a foot of snow on tv and online make me want to hold off on that. More on that later, but first, it's a look back at the February forecast.

That forecast involved snowfall totals for Rochester and Syracuse. Below are their seasonal totals that were recorded at the end of February.

Rochester: 112.0
Syracuse: 160.3

Bull's Eye: Rochester reaches 100, and Syracuse hits 150, by the end of the month.
On Target: Rochester reaches 100 by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: Rochester stays under 100 at the end of the month.

It's a Bull's Eye with both cities reaching the respective marks.

It turned out to be a great month for me. This Bull's Eye, combined with an On Target at GSG, brings my average up to 1.25. My intention at the beginning of the season was to make March the final SITD forecast. However, I have two forecasts that I'd like to do. So, the new plan is to have this one go for the month, and in a few weeks I will post the final one. This would give me 5 forecast periods, including the one done to start the season.

On that note, it's time for the March forecast. All the GSB cities are above their averages for the entire season, with more snow on the way. In an above average season, I just can't bring myself to forecast a below average March.

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

Here are the averages for March for each city.
Albany: 10.9
Binghamton: 14.2
Buffalo: 12.4
Rochester: 16.6
Syracuse: 18.8

Remember to check out the Golden Snowball site for the SITD Forecast over there!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 25-27, 2011

I could see some unknown green stuff where the white lawn used to be. That must mean it's time for another snow storm! I'm sure most in upstate NY region already know about the upcoming storm, for which I will be forecasting for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Before I get into that, it's a look back at the last forecast.

That last forecast featured snowfall amounts for the GSB cities. Here is their totals for the 20th and 21st.

Albany: 3.1
Binghamton: 4.7
Buffalo: 2.5
Rochester: 3.1
Syracuse: 1.8

Bull's Eye: Syracuse's snowfall total is higher than the combined total of the other 4 GSB cities.
On Target: Syracuse's snowfall total is higher than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snow than Syracuse.

Um...yeah. I'm just going to let that one speak for itself.

That Complete Miss along with the On Target forecast over on GSG made it a bit of a tough weekend. Once again, I have fallen below the 1.00 goal, now sitting at 0.92. There are now 4 weeks of forecasts left to reach that threshold.

To get there, I need a strong finish here, so let's start it up this weekend! As mentioned at the beginning, this focuses on the trio of Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. The big story is the Friday storm, and for good reason. Including that into the weekend, I see the three getting at least 8 inches, with at least one possibly getting a foot.

Bull's Eye: All three get at least 8 inches, with at least one getting a foot, of snow this weekend.
On Target: All three get at least 8 inches of snow.
Complete Miss: At least one of the three gets under 8 inches of snow.

Have a great weekend, and remember to check out the forecast on Golden Snow Globe as well!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 20-21, 2011

I wanted to get this done yesterday, but do to some difficulties, which are explained in more detail over on Golden Snow Globe, I was unable to get it done. That is the problem with waiting for verification sometimes, but that is the nature of it when trying to show how right (or wrong) a prediction was.

Last forecast involved temperatures, a comparison between highs and lows. Below are nighttime lows on Thursday (6pm to 6am) with Wednesday's highs in parenthesis.

Albany: 37 (39)
Binghamton: 46 (41)
Buffalo: 49 (44)
Rochester: 48 (44)
Syracuse: 40 (41)

Bull's Eye: All GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
On Target: 3 or 4 GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.

With 3 out of the 5 having warmer Thursday night lows than Wednesday highs, the forecast is On Target.

A pretty solid week for me, including the Bull's Eye on GSG, pushes my total to 10 points from 10 forecasts, a 1.00 average. That is exactly the goal set at the beginning of the season. We've reached the halfway point for the forecasts, and I'd like to have it all wrapped up at the end of March.

Now on to this forecast. As I mentioned earlier, I wanted to get it done yesterday as it was a comparison with Syracuse snowfall and the other GSB cities. I still believe the same idea will work out for Sunday and Monday.

Bull's Eye: Syracuse's snowfall total is higher than the combined total of the other 4 GSB cities.
On Target: Syracuse's snowfall total is higher than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snow than Syracuse.

Have a great weekend everyone, and remember to check out the forecast over on Golden Snow Globe.

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 16-17, 2011

This is the first midweek forecast of the season, and it is an effort to make up for not having one this past weekend. I will try to get another one up for this weekend as well.

Before all of that though, it is a look back at the last forecast, which involved snowfall for all GSB cities. Below are the weekend totals for each.

Albany: 0.5
Binghamton: 0.3
Buffalo: 4.1
Rochester: 3.3
Syracuse: 5.9

Bull's Eye: Albany and Binghamton combine for more snow than the other three GSB cities' combined total.
On Target: Albany and Binghamton have more snow than the other three GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Albany or Binghamton have less snow than at least one of the other GSB cities.

Warm temperatures kept Albany and Binghamton from getting the snow I expected. As a result, the forecast was a Complete Miss. Without a doubt, this is the worst forecast I've had for the GSB cities this season.

It was a tough forecast period for me as the GSG forecast only hit On Target. As a result, I'm at 7 points for 8 forecasts, which puts me at an average of .88. 12 forecasts, 6 periods worth, still remain for the season.


On to this forecast, which involves temperatures. A big warm up is expected for the region. As a result, I expect low temperatures on Thursday night to be warmer than Wednesday's high for most of the GSB cities.

Bull's Eye: All GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
On Target: 3 or 4 GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.
Complete Miss: 2 or fewer GSB cities have higher Thursday night low temperatures than Wednesday highs.

Remember to check out the forecast update on Golden Snow Globe as well. Enjoy the warmer weather everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Feb. 5-6, 2011

This weekend's outlook is a bit of a modification on one done earlier. More details are available after the look back at the last forecast.

The January 21-23 forecast involved low temperatures for the weekend in all 5 GSB cities. Below are their coldest lows of the weekend.

Albany: -6 (11:59pm Jan 23)
Binghamton: -4 (11:59pm Jan 23)
Buffalo: -5 (10:47pm Jan 23)
Rochester: -8 (11:59pm Jan 23)
Syracuse: -5 (11:48pm Jan 23)

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
On Target: Three or four of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.

All five were below 0 late Sunday, so the forecast was a Bull's Eye.

In all, it was a solid weekend as the Bull's Eye here was matched with an On Target forecast over on GSG. As a result, both site are at 1 each Bull's Eye, On Target and Complete Miss, giving me an average of 1.00 for the season.


Now onto this weekend's outlook. Snow showers seem to be in store for the southern and eastern portions of the state, so Albany and Binghamton should have more snow than the other three GSB cities this weekend.

Bull's Eye: Albany and Binghamton combine for more snow than the other three GSB cities' combined total.
On Target: Albany and Binghamton have more snow than the other three GSB cities.
Complete Miss: Albany or Binghamton have less snow than at least one of the other GSB cities.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site for that forecast update. Have a great weekend everyone!

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: February 2011

It's February, so it's time for a new edition of Shot In The Dark Forecasts. This month's focus is on milestones for some cities. But before we get into that, it's a look back at January.

January's outlook was based on snowfall for Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo, compared to the start of the season. Below are the month's totals, with snowfall in the beginning of the season in parenthesis.

Albany: 34.4 (13.0)
Binghamton: 25.0 (33.2)
Buffalo: 29.8 (33.6)

Bull's Eye: Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo will at least double their current snowfall totals by month's end.
On Target: 2 of the three double their current snowfall totals.
Complete Miss: 1 or fewer double their current snowfall totals.

Albany was the only one that had more snow in January than the start, so it was a Complete Miss. If only Binghamton and Buffalo could have kept up with Albany. ;)

While this one was a Complete Miss, the GSG forecast was a Bull's Eye. As a result, my average is at 1.00, exactly the goal set at the start.

Now onto this month's outlook. Since January focused on Albany, Binghamton and Buffalo, February will be about Rochester and Syracuse. For the month, Rochester averages about 20 inches while Syracuse averages about 24. These averages would put Rochester at about 100 inches, with Syracuse at around 140. I believe Rochester will reach the 100 mark, and Syracuse could see 150, by month's end.

Bull's Eye: Rochester reaches 100, and Syracuse hits 150, by the end of the month.
On Target: Rochester reaches 100 by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: Rochester stays under 100 at the end of the month.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site to see that edition as well. I will resume the Point Blank Range Forecasts tomorrow.

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 21-23, 2011

When words such as "frigid" and "arctic" are used to describe the upcoming temperatures, it might seem like a good idea to go on vacation. For those of us unable to make such a move, however, we're stuck with the chill. On that note, this edition of the Point Blank Range Forecasts focuses on the weekend's temperatures. Before we get into that though, it is a look back to see how the past forecast fared.

Last PBR focused on snowfall for the weekend in Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Below are the snow totals for each of the three cities.

Buffalo: 1.8
Rochester: 2.6
Syracuse: 8.3

Bull's Eye: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 6 inches for the weekend.
On Target: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 3 inches for the weekend.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Syracuse was the only one to reach either the 3 or 6 inch mark, so this is a Complete Miss.

A tough weekend for me as both the GSB and GSG forecasts resulted in Complete Miss outlooks. That brings my average down to 0.75, below the goal for the end of the season. There are eight more forecasts remaining this season, so I still have plenty of time to reach that mark.


Now on to this weekend's outlook. As mentioned earlier, this forecast focuses on the anticipated cold temperatures. I believe that a majority of the GSB cities will be below 0 this weekend, Friday night through Sunday.

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
On Target: Three or four of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer of the GSB cities will have low temperatures below 0 this weekend.

Be sure to check out the Golden Snow Globe site for that update. Have a great weekend everyone, and try to stay warm!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 15-17, 2011

1/16 - Just a heads up that Syracuse is over the 100 inch mark as of this morning :) Now we bring you back to Stephen )p

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With Martin Luther King Day on Monday, it's a three day weekend for most people. So, I figured this edition of Point Blank Range Forecasts should be for Sunday through Monday. Before we get into this weekend's outlook though, it's a check of the outcome for the previous forecasts.

Last weekend's GSB outlook involved snowfall for all five GSB cities. Below is the snowfall totals for each.

Albany: 7.7
Binghamton: 5.3
Buffalo: 3.5
Rochester: 4.2
Syracuse: 6.1

Bull's Eye: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than the other GSB cities combined.
On Target: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snowfall this weekend than Albany.

Albany had more snow than any other GSB city, but was far below the other 4 cities' combined total, so the forecast is On Target.

That gives me 1 On Target forecast for the GSB region. Combined with the 1 Bull's Eye forecast from GSG, I have 3 points out of 2 forecasts, giving me a 1.50 average so far.


Now on to this weekend's outlook. Indications are that Lake Effect snowfall is in store for Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse this weekend, so the PBR Forecast is for those three cities.

Bull's Eye: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 6 inches for the weekend.
On Target: Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse each have snowfall totals of at least 3 inches for the weekend.
Complete Miss: Any other result.

Remember to check out the Golden Snow Globe site to see that update. Have a great weekend everyone!

Point Blank Range Forecasts: Jan. 7-9, 2011

Before I get into the first Point Blank Range Forecast of the season, I figured I'd mention what the PBR Forecast is. Basically, a PBR is the exact opposite of the Shot In The Dark forecast in that research has been done while making the forecast, though sometimes it can be from a gut feeling. I also try to keep it from being like a typical forecast that is seen on TV or on other websites.

Albany is a distance last place right now, but from time to time, they could still get more snow in a given period than the other GSB cities. That is exactly what this edition of the Point Blank Range Forecast is featuring.

Bull's Eye: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than the other GSB cities combined.
On Target: Albany has more snowfall this weekend than any other GSB city.
Complete Miss: At least one GSB city has more snowfall this weekend than Albany.

As always, the GSG forecast is available on the Golden Snow Globe website.

Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011

So much for getting the forecasts up by New Year's. Basically, Shot In the Dark forecasts are a gut reaction, with little to no research involved in the outlook. The seasonal forecast is perhaps the biggest gut reaction of them all, as they involve results about three months away from now.

This time, the Golden Snowball SITD focuses on the standings when the contest is called, usually at the end of April. Syracuse has a big lead, and I'm not sure if another city will be able to catch Syracuse. On the flip side, I have no reason to believe Albany will be anywhere but 5th. The real race seems to be for 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I see Rochester taking 2nd and Binghamton being 3rd.

Bull's Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.

Check the Golden Snow Globe site to see the GSG 2011 Winter Forecast.

Introducing this year's forecasting features

Visitors on the Golden Snow Globe may recall my forecasting bits from last season. The basic idea was to make 2 forecasts in each post: one for somewhere in New York state and one for somewhere else in the country. There were 20 posts, or 40 forecasts, in all. The goal was to have an accuracy of 90% or better. The feature was called The Golden SnowCast. I've worked on some tweaks, and coming soon, I'll begin forecasting once again.

The first change is that I'll be doing two types of forecasting, long range and short range, instead of just one like last year. Short range basically follows the same format as last year's Golden SnowCast: I'll forecast for a few days away, usually weekends. The long range forecast will involve a season outlook (basically, the end of March) and predictions for January, February and March.

Secondly, the verification system has been changed. Last year, it was either right or wrong, no in between. This year, I'm introducing a target based system. Each forecast will have three different categories: Bull's Eye, On Target or Complete Miss. A Bull's Eye is worth 2 points, On Target is worth 1 and a Complete Miss is worth 0. The goal will be to be at 1.00 or better by season's end.

Third, instead of calling the zones New York State and World, they are now Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe. Last year, most of the NYS forecasts involved the GSB cities, and the World forecasts mostly involved other U.S. cities, so this is just a minor change really. Each zone's forecast will be posted on the respective sites.

Finally, I'll be taking suggestions into account when making the forecasts. Last year, we had a feature called Stump the Weather Chump. While that will stay this year, I figure we can expand on that this year. Basically, if a suggestion fits into the forecasting features, I'll try to use it there. If not, it'll be used as a Stump the Weather Chump challenge.

I'm sure all of this will make more sense as the forecasting begins. I plan on doing a season outlook on New Year's Eve, and the January look on New Year's Day. The first weekend forecast will be next week.

Happy Holidays everyone!