Point Blank Range Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up

With the silliness that comes with the start of April out of the way (yes, the last post was an April Fool's Day joke!), it's time to see just how much of a joke this season's Point Blank Range Forecasts were.

To start, it's a look at the final forecast of the season: temperatures, and their relation to average. Below are the number of days the GSB cities had high temperatures below average from the 29th to the 30th.

Albany: 1
Binghamton: 1
Buffalo: 2
Rochester: 2
Syracuse: 1

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities have below average highs both days.
On Target: All five GSB cities have below average highs in one day.
Complete Miss: Any GSB city has above average highs both days.

All five were below average on the 29th, but only Buffalo and Rochester were below average on the 30th. So, the final PBR Forecast of the season was On Target.

As a result, I do not meet the 1.00 average goal set at the beginning of the season. It was these forecasts that did me in this season, as of the 10 forecasts, only 1 was a Bull's Eye while 5 earned the Complete Miss designation. Golden Snow Globe forecasts were almost the exact opposite: 1 was a Complete Miss while 3 were in the Bull's Eye category. For the grand total, it's 18 points out of 20 forecasts, a 0.90 average.

So, the goal for next season will be the same as this season: 1.00 or better.

Tomorrow, I will try to get the Shot In The Dark Forecast results in for March. The SITD have 2 forecasts waiting for verification: the April outlook and the one done back in January for the entire Winter season. I'll try to get the full SITD wrap up done in the next few weeks.

Have a great week everyone!