Shot In The Dark Forecasts: March 2011
I'd like to say that the season is wrapping up, but seeing forecasts of a foot of snow on tv and online make me want to hold off on that. More on that later, but first, it's a look back at the February forecast.
That forecast involved snowfall totals for Rochester and Syracuse. Below are their seasonal totals that were recorded at the end of February.
Rochester: 112.0
Syracuse: 160.3
Bull's Eye: Rochester reaches 100, and Syracuse hits 150, by the end of the month.
On Target: Rochester reaches 100 by the end of the month.
Complete Miss: Rochester stays under 100 at the end of the month.
It's a Bull's Eye with both cities reaching the respective marks.
It turned out to be a great month for me. This Bull's Eye, combined with an On Target at GSG, brings my average up to 1.25. My intention at the beginning of the season was to make March the final SITD forecast. However, I have two forecasts that I'd like to do. So, the new plan is to have this one go for the month, and in a few weeks I will post the final one. This would give me 5 forecast periods, including the one done to start the season.
On that note, it's time for the March forecast. All the GSB cities are above their averages for the entire season, with more snow on the way. In an above average season, I just can't bring myself to forecast a below average March.
Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Here are the averages for March for each city.
Albany: 10.9
Binghamton: 14.2
Buffalo: 12.4
Rochester: 16.6
Syracuse: 18.8
Remember to check out the Golden Snowball site for the SITD Forecast over there!
Labels: forecasts
posted by Stephen @ 11:54 AM
5 Comments
5 Comments:
Thats cheating... the snowfall is going to be close to those averages after this storm here
I like this forecast Stephen. I think Albany may be trouble but like you mentioned it's hard not to go with over for all of them with the season we have had so far. Good Luck :)
Yeah, Albany's the tough one. But, one big storm could do it for them. A lot of it probably rides on today's system. If it's about as expected, it'll be close. If not, then we can probably put this under the "Complete Miss" category, haha.
Ha Anon, First off Stephen posted below before he saw what you posted so he even admits he is counting on this storm to help out ;)
Stephen isn't a fool, lmao . I think some of the cities aren't going to get what they called for though with this storm.
I just took a measurement here and the total snowfall just outside of the city of 'Cuse at my house is 17 inches. That's settled snow too so most likely around 18 inches here.
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