Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Wrap Up
Yes, I know, it's the end of May, not really time to be thinking about snow right now. That's why now is the perfect time to have the SITD Wrap Up!
Up first is the April forecast, which involved rankings for the five GSB cities. Below are the rankings as of the end of April, with the range I had given them in parenthesis.
Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 15th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)
Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities are within the given ranges.
On Target: Three or four are in the given ranges.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the given ranges.
All five were in range, with 4 of them being just making it. That's a Bull's Eye!
Finally, it's the Season outlook, which was made in the beginning of January. It involved the rankings of the five cities in this contest. Below are the cities' placements with my predicted rank in parenthesis.
1. Syracuse (1)
2. Rochester (2)
3. Binghamton (3)
4. Buffalo (4)
5. Albany (5)
Bull's Eye: The standings at the end of April will be Syracuse, Rochester, Binghamton, Buffalo and Albany.
On Target: Three are in the forecast spots.
Complete Miss: Two or fewer are in the forecast spots.
All five were in the position I had predicted, so that is another Bull's Eye!
Unfortunately, these two Bull's Eye forecasts were not enough to reach my 1.00 goal. The April and Season forecasts over on GSG were Complete Miss outlooks, so my average for the season is 0.90, the same as the Point Blank Range! This time, it was the GSG forecasts that let me down, as only one forecast was a Bull's Eye while three were of the Complete Miss category. On the GSB side, three were Bull's Eyes and two were Complete Misses.
So, the goal for next season will be the same this one, 1.00 or better.
Speaking of next season, I have some changes in mind that I'd like to get for the 2011-12 snow season. First and foremost, I got off to a late start, so I want to get the forecasts started in December and go through March instead of January through April like I did this season. Another idea floating around in my head is to have some sort of video forecast with these, instead of just text. I'll have to play around with that during the off season. If I can get it to work, it'll be here next season, if not, then it won't. I don't want to change it from text to video mid-season. All this been said, I feel like the current forecast structure is a keeper, so I will not be changing it next season.
Enjoy the off season everyone!