Shot In The Dark Forecasts: Winter 2011 Update

Got a bit behind where I wanted the updates to be, but here it is now. In this update, I'll be looking back at the March results, and see where the April outlook stands. It's about 3 weeks before the SITD Wrap Up, in which the April results will be final, as well as the forecast made at the beginning of the season. The goal is 1.00, when both Golden Snowball and Golden Snow Globe are combined.

The March forecast involved snowfall for the month compared to the historical average. Below are the snowfall totals for the five cities, with their respective averages in parenthesis.

Albany: 8.8 (10.9)
Binghamton: 25.9 (14.2)
Buffalo: 13.3 (12.4)
Rochester: 15.1 (16.6)
Syracuse: 18.5 (18.8)

Bull's Eye: All five GSB cities will have above average snowfall for March.
On Target: Three GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.
Complete Miss: Two or less GSB cities will have above average snowfall in March.

I know there were some comments at the beginning of the month that basically said this was a no-brainer. Well, this season, there is no such thing as a no-brainer this season as only 2 of the 5 were above average for March.

With both GSB and GSG giving me Complete Miss outlooks for March, my average has now dropped to 0.83, below the goal of 1.00. Of the four remaining results, it looks like I'll be needing at least 2 Bull's Eye predictions to get to the goal.

With that in mind, here's a look at April so far. I had ranges for where I believed each of the 5 GSB cities would be for the end of April, basically the end of the snow season. Below are their current rankings (as of the 9th), with the range I had given them in parenthesis.

Albany: 9th (5-9)
Binghamton: 6th (3-6)
Buffalo: 16th (13-19)
Rochester: 12th (8-12)
Syracuse: 4th (3-4)

Right now, all five are in the ranges I set. The best way for me to get a Bull's Eye with this forecast is for there to be no more snow for the next few weeks. I'm sure most people would be fine with that!

Hey, have a great week everyone!