Will it be a White Christmas
In 3 words, it better be! The topic just came up in by Evan aka - wxduff in the forum who is studying in meteorology at Suny Oswego this year. WeatherT says it looks right now that it will be warming up by the end of the weekend and we will probably see rain come Sunday. 3 more words NO, NO, NO. Last Christmas was green and it %$^$&^. Not two Christmas's in a row I hope.
Tony (WeatherT) left some hope for us though mentioning that behind the storm that brings in the rain will be cold air that should HOPEFULLY start up the lake machines and bring some bright white fluffy stuff to the Golden Snowball cities on Christmas eve. Lets hope it all pans out. I've been trying to find some stats on the odds of having a white Christmas for all the cities but so far I have only found Binghamton and Syracuse's stats. I'll post the others when I find them and maybe the General knows where they are and will post them in the mean time.
So far December has been a fun and white month for all of the cities. Most likely it won't be a record setting month but a couple of cities may end up having a snowy December that ends up in their top 5 snowiest Decembers ever. More to come on that later but right now Syracuse and Rochester are approaching their top 5 numbers.
The odds of a white Christmas and snowfall in Syracuse on Christmas Day - Stats provided by NOAA and are the average from between 1949 - 2004
63% Chance of have an inch or more of snow on the ground.
37% chance of getting an inch or more of snowfall on Christmas Day.
68% chance of at least getting a trace of snow on Christmas Day.
The odds of a white Christmas for Binghamton according to NOAA
64% of Christmas days have an inch or more of snow on the ground.
18% chance of getting an inch or more of snowfall on Christmas Day.
53% chance of at least getting a trace of snow on Christmas Day.
The Odds of Buffalo having snow on the ground Christmas Day ( All I could find for now)
57% chance of at least an inch on the ground
23% chance of 5 inches on the ground
13% chance of 10 inches of snow on the ground Christmas day.
The Odds of Binghamton having snow on the ground Christmas Day ( All I could find for now)
60% of an inch on the ground
23% of 5 inches
3% of 10 inches of snow on the ground Christmas Day
The Odds of Albany having snow on the ground Christmas Day ( Hard to believe :)
63% Chance of an inch on the ground Christmas Day
30% chance of 5 inches on the ground
13% chance of ten inches of snow on the ground Christmas day.
For some reason I have a hard time accepting Albany's stats for Christmas snow. I'll look around and see if I can come up with some more stats for Albany, Buffalo and Rochester about it actually snowing on Christmas day.
With that all said look for the Golden Snowball snowman to be a little hit and miss the next several days. The reason being I don't have a thing done yet for Christmas and I am running out of time quickly. Have a super day all!
From The General
Pat you always beat me to the punch on these threads. I was getting all my stuff ready to put up a White Christmas thread, and guess what I see on the main page! Anyhow...
Looks to start warming up a bit heading into the weekend, maybe another inch or two to add to the snowpack tonight across the state with a weak clipper.
Storm heading up into the central great lakes will bring up some decent rainfall on Saturday into Sunday, hopefully it won't be enough to destroy the snowpack but could put the chances of a white christmas in jeporday.
The lake effect certainly will get cranking up on Sunday night through Tuesday. Alot depends on where the system exactly tracks and how slow it is to turn to the eastward track. Looks like it might fire up some quick limited lake effect on a SW flow to get some snow into Buffalo, then shift to the W during Christmas Eve and eventually turn into a NW flow going into and through Christmas Day. I really want to see how the NAM plays out this storm when it picks it up in the next 36-48 hours. It handled this past storm the best of any of them.
Chances:
Albany: 50% depends on how well the snowpack can hold with the rain.
Bingo: 60%again with the snowpack holding, but should see at least some flurries on Christmas Day.
Buffalo: 75% snowpack should hold and a chance of even some weak lake effect would make it a sure win.
Rochester: 85% snowpack should definitely hold, and Christmas Day lake effect will help out again.
Syracuse: 98% just cant give any city a 100% chance... just in case.
12/18/07 3:34 PM
posted by Patrick @ 12:59 PM
3 Comments
3 Comments:
Pat you always beat me to the punch on these threads. I was getting all my stuff ready to put up a White Christmas thread, and guess what I see on the main page! Anywho...
Looks to start warming up a bit heading into the weekend, maybe another inch or two to add to the snowpack tonight across the state with a weak clipper.
Storm heading up into the central great lakes will bring up some decent rainfall on Saturday into Sunday, hopefully it won't be enough to destroy the snowpack but could put the chances of a white christmas in jeporday.
The lake effect certainly will get cranking up on Sunday night through Tuesday. Alot depends on where the system exactly tracks and how slow it is to turn to the eastward track. Looks like it might fire up some quick limited lake effect on a SW flow to get some snow into Buffalo, then shift to the W during Christmas Eve and eventually turn into a NW flow going into and through Christmas Day. I really want to see how the NAM plays out this storm when it picks it up in the next 36-48 hours. It handeled this past storm the best of any of them.
Chances:
Albany: 50% depends on how well the snowpack can hold with the rain.
Bingo: 60%again with the snowpack holding, but should see at least some flurries on Christmas Day.
Buffalo: 75% snowpack should hold and a chance of even some weak lake effect would make it a sure win.
Rochester: 85% snowpack should definetly hold, and Chirstmas Day lake effect will help out agian.
Syracuse: 98% just cant give any city a 100% chance... just in case.
General Steve, sorry about that. Two great minds think alike. Beats me why we are thinking alike :) We'll have to figure something out. You can always email me and I can add it to the post. I can tap into your posts but unfortunately you can't mine. The only way to do that would be to give you admin rights but one wrong move in the cpanel and the whole blog gets wiped out :(
You can't expect tp party until the wee hours of the night, sleep until 3:00 pm and beat me to the punch. I'm kidding of course everyone. Stev is a hard worker who works a lot of hours ;)
Steve, I added it to my post :) Umm, Below mine of course, lol.
slight chance we could get some kind of coastal storm developing along the cold front as it moves through late sunday, that would give us all a white xmas...a much better chance at lake effect monday and tuesday...here is a link to where im getting the info on the possibiltes of a coastal storm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html
look at the hrs 132 and beyond, a coastal low forms near hatteras and tracks toward central long island then to cape cod, there is only a small chance of this happening but ill watch for any trends in the models. btw, bgm has about 9 inches of snowdepth...personally i beleive it will hold through xmas, well see though.
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